BT's 2011 NHL Western Conference Playoff Preview Round 2

Fans of the Vancouver Canucks had an easy go of it during the regular season. After leading the league in wins (54), points (117), regulation and overtime wins (50), goal differential (+77, along with leading the way in goals-for and goals against), and winning the President’s Trophy, fans were riding high and expectations even higher.

Then the playoffs hit, and everything changed.

Well… not right away. Things started out well enough for the Canucks. Matched against their arch nemesis, the Chicago Blackhawks, Vancouver looked to exercise some demons on their way to the second round. And winning the first three games of that series certainly had them on their way to doing just that.

What no one bothered to consider, was that two of those wins were by one goal and the other a 2-0 win. Despite being down three games to none, the defending champs were a whole lot closer to Vancouver than anyone liked or thought to admit.

Then things started to slip away. Chicago won game four 7-2, and people just dismissed it as a “last gasp” for the ‘Hawks. Then Chicago made a statement in Vancouver with a 5-0 win. In game six it was Cory Schneider getting the start, but Roberto Luongo came in when he got hurt. Still, after sending it to overtime and outplaying the ‘Hawks, Vancouver lost again.

We all know what happened after that, and how the collective hearts of the city stopped when Jonathan Toews sent it to OT and how, if Chicago had scored on that power play in overtime, Alex Burrows was going to be traded to Sweden for a Marcus Naslund jersey.

So what does it mean for Vancouver now? Are they worn out from that series against Chicago? Do they have anything left, or did they reach their emotional high in the first round? Maybe they’re refocused on their goals now and prepared to move forward, and have the clearest view of the Stanley Cup they’ve ever had.

The answer is simple: we’ll find out.

Ryan Kesler said that he had never wanted anything more than to win that game seven. Roberto Luongo went as far as to call that win “bigger than the Olympics.” (Maybe for him, but Sidney Crosby and 33 million Canadians would disagree.)

But the relief for Vancouver was visible when the winning goal went in.

That’s a lot of emotion for just a first round series.

The fact is history is dotted with examples of teams that became emotionally and physically spent after one round despite being a top seed. The Montreal Canadiens were the top seed in the East in the 2008 playoffs. A seven-game series against the hated Boston Bruins wore the Habs out as they fell in four games to the sixth-seeded Philadelphia Flyers in the second round. That same year the second-seeded Sharks turned around and fell in six games to the Dallas Stars after a grinding, seven-game series with Calgary in round one.

On the other side however, there are plenty of teams who have used that emotional high to carry them further in the playoffs, and there’s no better example than the Flyers of 2010, coming back from a 3-0 hole against Boston in round two last year, pushing past Montreal in five games, and losing to Chicago in six games in the Stanley Cup Final.

If you want an example from another league, the Windsor Spitfires came back from down 3-0 against the Kitchener Rangers in the OHL Western Conference Final last year, swept their way to a second-straight Memorial Cup, and didn’t lose a game until the 2010-11 regular season.

What Vancouver can’t do however, is become self-obsessed and dwell on what’s already happened in the playoffs. Whether it’s the questions about their ability to win, or loud musings about the mental state of the team or goaltender, Vancouver has to block all of that out.

Because if they aren’t able to do that? Then those things won’t simply be questions or musings anymore…They will  be facts.

1. Vancouver Canucks v. 5. Nashville Predators

What Vancouver has going for them: Emotionally that game seven win has them fired up and has re-concentrated their efforts. Along with that, the production they got out of Alex Burrows, Ryan Kesler, and Chris Higgins in Game Seven was huge, and fingers are crossed that Kesler can finally score a goal in these playoffs. Mike Gillis’ comments may have provided them with another mental age, suddenly making it “us against the refs” (or the world).

What Nashville has going for them: Don’t sleep on the Predators because they’re dangerous. Nashville just came off of a series win against an offensively-powered team with four elite players and survived. The main reason for this is the production they got from role players like Jordin Totoo and Nick Spalling, but more importantly the performance of Pekka Rinne. And don’t forget, four players (Perry, Selanne, Koivu, Getzlaf) had six or more points for the Ducks in that series… They didn’t shut these guys down, a bunch of “no namers” (as people like to say) outscored and outlasted them.

Who wins: It’s not an easy ride, but Vancouver survives again. Ultimately, a fired-up Canucks team out to prove themselves refuses to roll over and pushes Nashville. The Predators push back though and make it a series.

Vancouver wins 4-2.

What Nashville needs to prove me wrong: A performance from Pekka Rinne that has the Sedins pulling out their hair in frustration. That, and a couple of early goals to:

a) Take the home crowd out of it (or get the home crowd into it depend on the game); and,

b) Bring on the “not this again” mindset.

What’s not so great about the playoffs: The “limited suspensions in the playoffs” rule. I’m sorry, but this is ridiculous. The NHL needs to clue in. A suspension spanning three or more playoff games isn’t too harsh. In fact, it’s the perfect way to teach a lesson, but unless you step on someone’s foot, all of those “headshot lessons” and amendments the NHL was handing out in the regular season have fallen by the wayside.

2. San Jose Sharks v. 3. Detroit Red Wings

What San Jose has going for them: It’s another mental win for the Sharks, as they overcame an LA team that, when they beat the Sharks, the losses were painful. Ryan Clowe, Patrick Marleau, and Joe Thornton are a pretty big load to handle, and the production has matched in the playoffs.

What Detroit has going for them: The Detroit Red Wings are the most rested team of the second round, and with that rest, comes health. Any bumps and bruises have probably healed, but more importantly Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen are the two recovering properties with the most pull. Also consider that this team is hard to step because, not surprisingly, they’re deep. Valtteri Filppula was the team’s second-leading scorer, while seven other players had at least three points.

Who wins: Detroit, and it goes no further than who you would trust more between the pipes. Yes, the San Jose Sharks beat Detroit in the second round last year and it was coming off of a curious first round series with the Avs, but you can’t overlook the fact that Detroit capitalized on Phoenix’s mistakes in the first round and make a great goalie in Ilya Bryzgalov look average. Jimmy Howard saw this Sharks team first hand last year and has learned from his mistakes.

Detroit wins 4-1.

What San Jose needs to prove me wrong: Get the 2010 incarnation of Antti Niemi, and use Clowe/Thornton/Marleau to try and turn the tables and force Detroit to make some mistakes. The big thing though, is that San Jose needs to win the low-scoring games. They scored at least four goals in three of their wins against the Kings, but don’t expect to get that kind of offensive prominence against the Wings.

What’s great about the playoffs: Players that come out of nowhere. Dustin Byfuglien last year and Jordin Tootoo and Ryan Clowe this year. It’s always exciting to see these guys succeed and they present a multitude of fun and interesting questions for next season.

And there you have it. Now only time will tell if I got it.