NHL 2009-10 Preview: Southeast Division
By Alan Bass
Washington Capitals
Plus:
1. Semyon Varlamov: The young goalie who had his coming out party in the ’09 post-season, starts in net for the first time in the regular season. Will he respond the same way in an 82-game regular season as he did in a shortened playoff run? I think so. Key stat: Varlamov had a .918 save percentage and a 2.53 GAA in the Caps’ playoff run.
2. Ovie and the Caps: Consistently a powerful team in the new NHL, Ovechkin leads this talented team that will simply dominate the weakest division in the NHL (yeah, I said it). Key stat: Ovechkin tied for the League lead in playoff points per game in 2008-09.
Minus:
1. Depth: The Caps are missing depth. That is clear, as they were beaten by a Pittsburgh team that was simply built for playoff hockey; talent mixed with grit. Washington lost Donald Brashear, and they don’t have much talent past the first-and-a-half lines. If they want to succeed in the post-season, they need to continue to make some moves.
2. Off-season moves: True, they signed Mike Knuble, a reliable player who creates traffic in front of the net. But will signing him and Brendan Morrison really help the depth they crave? And will it replace Sergei Fedorov who bolted to Russia?
Analysis: Washington is a “victim” of playing in an extremely weak division. By reigning atop the Southeast Division, they are inflating their point total and making it seem like they are better than they truly are. Don’t get me wrong, they are incredibly talented. But not so incredible that they are actually the best team in the Eastern Conference. They will finish up there because of their schedule.
Prediction: First in Southeast. First in East.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Plus:
1. Off-season Moves: Signing Mattias Ohlund and drafting Victor Hedman were two very good moves, by the Lightning. The decision not to trade Vincent Lecavalier also helps Tampa Bay in the long run. Even if they decide to move him this year (at the deadline, perhaps), Tampa will garner more in return from a team desperately in need of a superstar, to help in its playoff run. Key stat: Tampa Bay dished out six contracts this summer, worth a combined $36.475 million over 15 years.
2. Defence: With Ohlund, Hedman, Meszaros, and Ranger on defence, they are not so much the best team in the East on the blueline, but they have some talent. This year will be a training/learning year for Hedman, so he can adjust to the NHL game, but look for him and Ohlund to be paired together for a good few years. Key stat: Last year’s top-five Tampa Bay D-men (statistically) had a combined minus-21 rating—hardly a bad stat for a 14th place team.
Minus:
1. Goaltending: Mike Smith is not a starting NHL goalie. It is that simple. Antero Niittymaki hasn’t been good for years. This is simple, too. Tampa’s goaltending has been flat ever since Nikolai Khabibulin left a few years ago. They need to fix it now.
2. Coaching: I do not believe Rick Tocchet is the person to lead an NHL team. True, he got Steven Stamkos rolling after Barry Melrose left, but come on, now. Any competent coach could make Stamkos successful. Hence the reason he struggled under Melrose.
Analysis: A team that could surprise a lot of people. Their defence is much improved. However, I’m still not sold on this team. I believe they will fight for a playoff spot until late-March when they are mathematically eliminated. They are in an easy division, but a tough conference (and league for that matter). Even with Lecavalier and St. Louis, this team is missing tons of players to revert to the contenders they were in the pre-lockout days.
Prediction: Third in Southeast. Eleventh in East.
Carolina Hurricanes
Plus:
1. Return of Paul Maurice: Maurice is a great coach. Underappreciated in Toronto, Maurice’s return to his former team was timed perfectly. He led them to the conference finals before being swept by a team that was simply better. Maurice is the man to lead the 'Canes, although they are running short on talent as of recent. Key stat: Contrary to popular belief, Maurice’s best season came with the Maple Leafs in 2006-07 when he recorded 40 wins and 91 points.
2. Keeping the core: The core of the Stanley Cup Champions in 2006 is still there. The supporting cast is not. Key stat: 14 members of the 2006 championship team are still regulars on the Hurricanes’ squad.
Minus:
1. Weaknesses all around: There is no depth on defence, little depth on offence and they lack a bona fide backup goalie. Leighton has the potential to be good, but cannot be counted upon to relieve Cam Ward for 20 games per season. On defence, Joni Pitkanen still has much room to improve and the depth isn’t too pretty. On the other side of the ice, the top players of Eric Staal, Ray Whitney, Matt Cullen and Scott Walker remain, but other than those players (and an aging Rod Brind’Amour), there isn’t much going on.
2. Depth: See "Minus" point No.1.
Analysis: I can absolutely see Carolina make the playoffs, but it’s won't happen easily. If anything, it will happen on the last day or two of the regular season. They have a strong, reliable goalie in Cam Ward, but their offence is weak and their defence is even weaker. I do not see the motivation of a new coach running through an entire season. Expect the 'Canes to start the season hot and then slow down as we get into the New Year.
Prediction: Second in Southeast. Eight in East.
Florida Panthers
Plus:
1. Goaltending: Vokoun and Clemmensen will be a solid goaltending tandem. Expect Clammer to get at least 25-30 starts this season and play well in them. Vokoun should continue to succeed in Florida and put up respectable numbers. Key stat: Vokoun had a .926 save percentage last year… perhaps the quietest great save percentage in the NHL.
2. Young guys: They have some good potential in the locker room with Frolik, Booth, Weiss, Leopold, and so on. True, they all need to step up, but the talent is there. Key stat: The Panthers have six players who are 24 and under.
Minus:
1. Replacing Jay-Bo: I’m the first one to say that Bouwmeester is overrated. But Jordan Leopold is still not a good replacement for him. Losing Nick Boynton was also no help, as the Panthers’ blueline looks meek.
2. Front Office Craziness: Who is the GM? No one really knows. Rick Dudley is running the front office at the moment, but no one is officially the head of this team. Can anyone say stability?
Analysis: The Panthers have a ray of hope; there is a light at the end of the tunnel. However, that light is slowly turning into darkness. Okay, enough with the metaphors. This team has some potential and young talent that could propel them into a playoff spot, but neither I, nor anyone else sees that happening this year. With bumpiness in the front office and a lack of defence on the blueline, don’t expect the Cats to be attacking anyone too much this season.
Prediction: Fourth in Southeast. Twelth in East.
Atlanta Thrashers
Plus:
1. Young Guys: Drafting Evander Kane was a big move for the organization and one that will pay off in a few years. This man is a mini-Jarome Iginla. Same talent, same attitude, similar stats. Kovalchuk is still young, Zach Bogosian is young, and other prospects are starting to crack the lineup. Key stat: The average age of the Atlanta roster is 26.7.
2. Return from Injury: Zach Bogosian is an unbelievable defender. Returning to healthy status, he will be a huge part of this team. Key stat: Bogosian had 19 points in 47 in an injury-derailed rookie season.
Minus:
1. No Support for Kovie: The Thrashers are missing depth. Rather than try to fix it, they concentrate on signing whomever they can get to convince Kovalchuk to stay. They should aim for some depth players that can support the top ones. Kovalchuk is a smart guy. He doesn’t need another aging veteran around him. If the team has the potential to be successful, he will see it and stay.
2. KKK: Kane, Kozlov, Kovalchuk. Great line. Horrible name. I don’t think “Little Black Russian” works either, honestly.
Analysis: The Thrashers are going to be bottom feeders for the season, once again, but don’t worry fans. All three of you.
Sorry, that was cruel.
Anyway, there is some good potential on this team and down in the farm, but that potential may not turn into talent for another two or three years. In the meantime, the Thrashers must develop their prospects and hope like hell that Kovalchuk decides to re-sign and stay in Atlanta by the end of the season.
Prediction: Fifth in Southeast. Fourteenth in East.
